Who’s Taking Home the Champions League 2024 Trophy?

Ricardo Seco 18 Apr, 2024 Blog

The UEFA Champions League is the pinnacle of European football, where the continent’s elite clubs battle it out for supremacy on the grandest stage. As the tournament reaches its climax, speculation is rife about which team will emerge victorious and etch their name into footballing history. With powerhouse clubs and rising contenders vying for the coveted trophy, the stage is set for an electrifying conclusion to the 2024 Champions League campaign.

Manchester City – The favorites to retain their crown

In the ever-evolving saga of the Champions League, changes loom on the horizon, potentially reshaping the tournament’s dynamics. Yet, in the current format, fans are treated to a tantalizing clash between footballing giants: Manchester City and Real Madrid. 

Manchester City’s aiming to edge ahead in their head-to-head record against Madrid, the stakes are higher than ever. Despite facing the formidable Real Madrid, Pep Guardiola’s squad is favored to clinch the trophy once again, boasting impressive odds of success. With a 60% chance of progressing to the semi-finals and a 41.2% probability of reaching their third final in four seasons, City stands poised on the brink of greatness, ready to seize their moment and etch their name into footballing history.

Real Madrid – The European powerhouse


Real Madrid emerges as a formidable contender in the Champions League, standing just behind Manchester City as second favorites. With Carlo Ancelotti at the helm, they hold a 15% chance of clinching the title. Their dominance is evident, having trailed on the scoreboard for a mere 26 minutes this season, the fewest among all teams. 

Spearheading their attack is Vinícius Júnior, a force to be reckoned with, leading the charge with 27 goal involvements since the 2021-22 campaign. Alongside him, Jude Bellingham has proven his worth, contributing to every Champions League game for Real Madrid. With a 40% chance of overcoming City in the quarter-finals and a 23.8% probability of reaching the 2024 final, Real Madrid is poised to make a formidable run for the trophy.

Arsenal – Increase efforts

Arsenal, though leading the Premier League, faces an uphill battle in the Champions League, with their chances rated significantly lower than City’s at 13.6%. Despite their illustrious history, Arsenal holds the record for the most UCL games played without winning the trophy. In the quarter-finals, they confront Bayern Munich, setting the stage for a showdown with former rival Harry Kane. 

The England captain’s impressive track record against Arsenal adds an intriguing twist to the encounter, with Kane aiming to haunt his old club once again. However, Arsenal is favored to prevail, boasting a 58.5% chance of progressing to the semi-finals. With their eyes set on a spot in the final, Arsenal seeks to overcome their quarter-final woes and make a triumphant return to Champions League glory.

Paris Saint-Germain – A force to be reckoned with

Paris Saint-Germain emerges as a formidable contender in the Champions League, benefitting from Real Madrid’s draw against the holders. With a 14.7% chance of claiming the title, PSG is poised for success after being strategically placed away from the ‘big four’ teams. 

A reunion with Barcelona in the quarter-finals sparks anticipation, especially with Kylian Mbappé’s impressive track record against the Catalan giants. Despite a cautionary tale of their historic defeat to Barcelona in 2017, PSG remains confident with a 57% likelihood of progressing to the semi-finals. With the prospect of facing Atlético Madrid or Borussia Dortmund next, PSG’s chances of reaching the final stand at more than one in three, promising an exhilarating journey in this season’s Champions League.

Barcelona – A return to prominence


Barcelona enters the Champions League as the fifth favorite, with a 9% chance of victory. Their path to the final holds promise, with a 43% likelihood of overcoming PSG in the quarter-finals. A fortunate draw, avoiding Man City and Real Madrid, boosts their odds. 

However, memories of their devastating loss to Bayern in 2020 linger, serving as a reminder of past shortcomings in the quarter-finals. Despite their storied history, Barcelona has only advanced from this stage once in their last five attempts, adding an element of uncertainty to their journey.

Borussia Dortmund – Germany’s dark horse

Borussia Dortmund emerges as Germany’s beacon of hope for European glory, fueled by recent victories over PSV and Bayern Munich. Surprisingly favored to prevail over Atlético Madrid, Dortmund holds a 56.3% chance of progression. However, their road to the final is fraught with challenges, with slim odds of winning the ultimate match. Despite their prowess at home, Dortmund’s away record in the knockout stages leaves much to be desired, adding an element of unpredictability to their quest for Champions League success.

Bayern Munich – A season of struggles


Despite Harry Kane’s stellar performance, Bayern Munich has endured a disappointing season. Coach Thomas Tuchel is under pressure to salvage European glory before his departure. However, the odds are stacked against them, with only a 6.2% chance of winning the Champions League, despite boasting the world’s best center-forward. Their clash with Arsenal presents a formidable challenge, with a 41.5% chance of victory. Yet, even if they overcome Arsenal, their chances of defeating Manchester City or Real Madrid are slim, standing at just 12.1%. It’s a tough road ahead for Bayern Munich as they strive to defy the odds and reignite their season with European success.

Atlético Madrid – The underdogs

Atlético Madrid, led by the tactical mastermind Diego Simeone, finds themselves at the bottom of the favorites list, a position that may suit Simeone’s underdog approach. Despite their recent triumph over last season’s runners-up, Inter Milan, in the round of 16, they are considered the least likely winners. Their upcoming clash with Borussia Dortmund presents an opportunity, with a 43.7% chance of success. However, their journey to the final is fraught with challenges, with only a 16.2% likelihood of progression. Despite their past success as runners-up, Atlético Madrid faces an uphill battle, with slim odds of just 5% to clinch the UEFA Champions League title this season.


As the footballing world holds its breath, the burning question remains: Who will take home the Champions League 2024 trophy? With the stage set and the contenders ready to battle, the answer lies in the hands of the players, coaches, and fans who live and breathe the beautiful game.

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